IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Alcorn St.
Southwestern Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-13.4	#334
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.1	#85
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.9	#319

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.5	#336

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.8%	11.0%	4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	15.9	16.0

.500 or above	13.1%	38.2%	11.9%
.500 or above in Conference	45.2%	66.5%	44.2%
Conference Champion	15.8%	31.1%	15.1%
Last Place in Conference	5.2%	1.4%	5.4%

First Four	4.6%	9.6%	4.3%
First Round	1.9%	4.7%	1.8%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 4.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	0 - 6	0 - 8
Quad 4	9 - 11	9 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	131	@ UAB	L	62-80	4%
Nov 28, 2020	172	@ Kent St.	L	68-84	8%
Dec 01, 2020	79	DePaul	L	67-87	3%
Dec 03, 2020	227	@ Purdue Fort Wayne	L	67-79	13%
Dec 05, 2020	136	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	69-87	5%
Dec 10, 2020	271	@ California Baptist	L	72-82	18%
Dec 12, 2020	200	@ Hawaii	L	67-81	10%
Dec 22, 2020	147	@ Liberty	L	56-73	6%
Dec 28, 2020	125	@ Santa Clara	L	69-88	5%
Jan 02, 2021	237	Texas Southern	L	78-84	31%
Jan 04, 2021	302	Prairie View	L	75-77	43%
Jan 09, 2021	300	@ Jackson St.	L	68-76	23%
Jan 11, 2021	316	@ Grambling St.	L	70-76	29%
Jan 16, 2021	348	Mississippi Valley	W	91-80	83%
Jan 18, 2021	338	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	71-67	64%
Jan 23, 2021	344	@ Alabama St.	W	73-72	54%
Jan 25, 2021	343	@ Alabama A&M	W	71-70	52%
Jan 30, 2021	262	Southern	L	70-74	35%
Feb 06, 2021	300	Jackson St.	L	71-73	42%
Feb 08, 2021	316	Grambling St.	L	72-73	49%
Feb 13, 2021	348	@ Mississippi Valley	W	88-83	67%
Feb 15, 2021	338	@ Arkansas Pine Bluff	L	68-70	44%
Feb 20, 2021	344	Alabama St.	W	76-69	72%
Feb 22, 2021	343	Alabama A&M	W	74-68	70%
Feb 27, 2021	262	@ Southern	L	67-77	19%
Mar 04, 2021	237	@ Texas Southern	L	75-87	16%
Mar 06, 2021	302	@ Prairie View	L	72-80	25%
Projected Record						9 - 18	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st									0.0	0.5	2.0	2.8	3.2	3.0	2.2	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.1		15.8	1st
2nd								0.1	1.7	6.1	6.7	4.9	2.8	1.1	0.3	0.1					23.7	2nd
3rd							0.0	1.0	5.4	4.3	1.8	0.5	0.1								13.2	3rd
4th						0.0	0.4	3.7	4.1	0.5	0.1	0.0									8.8	4th
5th						0.2	2.3	4.4	0.9	0.0											7.8	5th
6th				0.0	0.1	1.2	4.2	2.3	0.0												7.7	6th
7th				0.0	0.7	3.7	3.2	0.2													7.8	7th
8th			0.0	0.7	2.5	3.0	0.6	0.0													6.8	8th
9th		0.0	0.6	2.4	2.1	0.4	0.0														5.6	9th
10th	0.2	0.6	1.0	0.8	0.2	0.0															2.7	10th

Total	0.2	0.7	1.6	3.9	5.5	8.4	10.7	11.7	12.1	11.5	10.5	8.3	6.1	4.1	2.5	1.5	0.5	0.2	0.1			Total

Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2
16-2	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
15-3	95.0%	1.4		1.3	0.1
14-4	86.2%	2.2		1.8	0.3
13-5	73.1%	3.0		2.3	0.6	0.0
12-6	51.9%	3.2		2.2	0.9	0.0
11-7	33.7%	2.8		1.7	1.0	0.1
10-8	19.0%	2.0		0.7	0.9	0.4	0.0
9-9	4.6%	0.5		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Total	15.8%	15.8		10.8	4.0	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		51.9%	51.9%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
17-1	0.2%		49.2%	49.2%		15.7																0.0	0.1	0.1
16-2	0.5%		37.1%	37.1%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3
15-3	1.5%		24.7%	24.7%		16.0																0.0	0.4	1.1
14-4	2.5%		16.7%	16.7%		16.0																0.0	0.4	2.1
13-5	4.1%		15.7%	15.7%		16.0																	0.6	3.5
12-6	6.1%		12.3%	12.3%		16.0																0.0	0.7	5.3
11-7	8.3%		8.0%	8.0%		16.0																	0.7	7.6
10-8	10.5%		6.3%	6.3%		16.0																	0.7	9.9
9-9	11.5%		4.3%	4.3%		16.0																	0.5	11.0
8-10	12.1%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																	0.3	11.8
7-11	11.7%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																	0.2	11.5
6-12	10.7%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	10.6
5-13	8.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.4
4-14	5.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
3-15	3.9%																							3.9
2-16	1.6%																							1.6
1-17	0.7%																							0.7
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		4.8%	4.8%	0.0%	16.0															0.0	0.1	4.7	95.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%